Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.Institution: It is expected that the PC market in China will resume growth in the second half of 2025. IDC, an international data company, issued a document saying that the overall PC market in China is expected to improve in 2025, and the shipment volume will drop slightly by 0.2% compared with that in 2024. Among them, the first half of 2025 will be affected by the early release of demand at the end of 2024, and the expected shipment volume is still negative, down 4.2% year-on-year; In the second half of 2025, it will improve as a whole, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.0%.Trader: The Indian central bank may support Indian Rupee by selling dollars through state-owned banks.
Hong Kong stock black sesame intelligence once rose more than 20%. The company was recently included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, and its interim net profit turned a profit year-on-year.CICC: Depleting inventories to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. In terms of real estate, the meeting will "continue to push the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" as the primary task of risk prevention. The research department of CICC believes that destocking to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. First, control the supply of new land; second, optimize the supply structure of existing land and commercial housing; it is expected that the supply optimization policies such as land ticket, land exchange and commercial housing reform will be further promoted; third, dispose of existing commercial housing; it is expected that the efforts to store unsold commercial housing and existing second-hand housing for affordable housing will be increased; fourth, intensify the implementation of the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses.On the 13th, local time, the South Korean prosecutor summoned Guo Zhonggen, the commander of the special operations before the investigation.
CICC: Gradually filling the gap between inflation and demand will be the direction of economic work next year. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The research department of CICC believes that for the economic goal of next year, after "maintaining stable economic growth", the meeting proposed to "maintain overall stability in employment and prices" and put forward "focusing on goal guidance and striving to achieve an optimal combination of stable growth, stable employment and reasonable price recovery". This is the first time in the past 15 years that "stabilizing prices" has been taken as the goal of annual economic work during the period of low prices. The research department of CICC believes that gradually bridging the inflation gap and demand gap will be the direction of economic work next year.EDI SUSIANTO, Executive Director of the Bank of Indonesia: The decline of the Indonesian rupiah was affected by global sentiment and the rise of the US dollar.Tianyuan Environmental Protection set up a construction engineering company in Xinjiang. The enterprise search APP shows that recently, Xinjiang Tianyuan Construction Engineering Co., Ltd. was established with Xuan Wang as its legal representative and a registered capital of 50 million yuan. Its business scope includes: construction; Subcontracting of construction services; Construction professional work, etc. Enterprise investigation shows that the company is wholly owned by Tianyuan Environmental Protection.
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide
Strategy guide 12-14